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  • The lira's crash 'looks certain to push the Turkish economy into recession and may well trigger a banking crisis'

    6 monthes ago - By Business Insider

    The lira crisis is bad enough to push Turkey from 7% GDP growth into recession, according to Capital Economics.
    Contagion will be limited - the Turkish economy just isn't that big.
    But the equivalent of 6% of Spain's GDP is exposed to Turkey, and BBVA bank will be worst hit.
    Italy and France will take some punches, too.
    LONDON - "The plunge in the lira, which began in May, now looks certain to push the Turkish economy into recession and it may well trigger a banking crisis."

    That's the first, alarming, sentence in a note from Capital Economics' chief global economist Andrew Kenningham...
    Read more ...

     

  • Turkey's lira crisis may be down to Erdogan's fundamental misunderstanding of how 'evil' interest rates work

    Turkey's lira crisis may be down to Erdogan's fundamental misunderstanding of how 'evil' interest rates work

    6 monthes ago - By Chron

    The Turkish lira collapsed by over 35% in value versus the US dollar this year - a dramatic and sudden fall.
    Yet the Turkish economy is growing strongly.
    The trigger for the crisis may be investors' realisation that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan doesn't understand, or doesn't believe in, the role central banks play in setting interest rates that control inflation.
    Erdogan has called interest rates "evil" in the past, and it's an attitude that may be spooking markets.
    Read more ...