• Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

    4 monthes ago - By Calculated Risk

    From Merrill Lynch:
    Core retail sales popped 0.5% mom in May with positive revisions. Industrial production and inventories were also solid. The data lifted 2Q GDP tracking by 0.4pp to 2.5% qoq saar. 1Q GDP tracking was unchanged at 3.2%.
    emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
    The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.4% for 2019:Q2 and 1.7% for 2019:Q3. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on June 14, up from 1.4 percent on June 7. After this morning's retail sales release from the U.S...
    Read more ...


  • Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in May

    Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in May

    4 monthes ago - By Calculated Risk

    From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
    Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in May after falling 0.4 percent in April. The indexes for manufacturing and mining gained 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, in May; the index for utilities climbed 2.1 percent. At 109.6 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 2.0 percent higher in May than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector moved up 0.2 percentage point in May to 78.1 percent, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2018)...
    Read more ...