• MACQUARIE: A key indicator used by Wall Street to predict recessions has been calling things wrong for decades

    7 days ago - By Business Insider

    A dropping stock market is often flagged as an indicator of an imminent recession, but Australian investment bank Macquarie disputes this hypothesis.
    Looking at the past 11 recessions, Macquarie struggled to find any real consistency in the markets before economic downturns.
    "We find no clear pattern as to the behaviour of equity prices in the lead-up to recessions," Macquarie's team of Ric Deverell, Hayden Skilling, and David Doyle wrote to clients.
    When a recession is approaching, one of the first signs that things are starting to go downhill will be a substantial and sustained fall in...
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