• Merrill on Trade and Tariffs

    4 days ago - By Calculated Risk

    A few excerpts from a note by economists Anna Zhou and Ethan Harris at Merrill Lynch: "Here for a long time, not a good time"
    In their October 2018 paper, Furceri, Hannan, Ostry and Rose looked into the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. They analysed data spanning 151 counties over the period 1963-2014 to quantify the impact of tariffs on output, productivity, unemployment, real exchange rates and trade balances. The authors find that tariffs have adverse macroeconomic consequences in the short and medium term.
    These results are also consistent with economic theory....
    What about the...
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