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FOMC Preview

Posted On: Mar 19, 2018   |   Posted By: Calculated Risk

The consensus is that the Fed will increase the Fed Funds Rate 25bps at the meeting this week, and the tone might be a bit more "hawkish".
Assuming the expected happens, the focus will be on the wording of the statement, the projections, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's first press conference to try to determine how many rate hikes to expect in 2018 and in 2019.
Here are the December FOMC projections .
Current projections for Q1 GDP range from 1.8% to 2.7%. There is probably some residual seasonality in the Q1 GDP numbers. So it is too early to revise down 2018 GDP.
At this point, as far as the impact of fiscal stimulus, the Fed has probably incorporated the estimated impact of the tax cuts in their projections for 2018 and beyond. So the FOMC might increase their projections a little.
GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents Change in
Real GDP 1 2018 2019 2020 Dec 2017 2.2 to 2.6 1.9 to 2.3 1.7 to 2.0 Sept 2017 2.0 to 2.3 1.7 to 2.1 1.6 to 2.0 1 Projections...

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