The consensus is that the Fed will increase the Fed Funds Rate 25bps at the meeting this week, and the tone might be a bit more "hawkish".
Assuming the expected happens, the focus will be on the wording of the statement, the projections, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's first press conference to try to determine how many rate hikes to expect in 2018 and in 2019.
Here are the December FOMC projections .
Current projections for Q1 GDP range from 1.8% to 2.7%. There is probably some residual seasonality in the Q1 GDP numbers. So it is too early to revise down 2018 GDP.
At this point, as far as the impact of fiscal stimulus, the Fed has probably incorporated the estimated impact of the tax cuts in their projections for 2018 and beyond. So the FOMC might increase their projections a little.
GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents Change in
Real GDP 1 2018 2019 2020 Dec 2017 2.2 to 2.6 1.9 to 2.3 1.7 to 2.0 Sept 2017 2.0 to 2.3 1.7 to 2.1 1.6 to 2.0 1 Projections...
The last Posts from "Calculated Risk"
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- Goldman: "Moving Beyond Full Employment"
- Schedule for Week of Apr 22, 2018
- Oil Rigs "Middling rig adds"
- Four Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
- Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 4 states in March; Kentucky and Maine at New Series Lows
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Up Year-over-Year, Record Q1
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Showed "Continued Growth" in April
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 232,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Housing Inventory Tracking
- Fed's Beige Book: "Modest to moderate" expansion, "concern about tariffs"
- AIA: "Architecture billings remain positive in March"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Beige Book, Architecture Billings Index
- Comments on March Housing Starts
- Housing Starts increased to 1.319 Million Annual Rate in March
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